DDM Analysis: 002881.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$19.44 - $97.00	$34.74
Multi-Stage	$11.73 - $12.83	$12.27
Blended Fair Value	$23.50
Current Price	$48.99
Upside	-52.03%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	28.81%	33.60%	0.10	0.12	0.14	0.04	0.02	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.01	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	-17.89%	-14.50%	257.23%	106.41%	-31.51%	-44.88%	428.32%	30.26%	-8.71%	47.59%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.21%	0.50%	0.43%	0.15%	0.15%	0.18%	0.29%	0.07%	0.13%	0.14%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	157.39
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	42.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)	115.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	31.48	19.67	11.80
Cash Retained (M)	115.23	115.23	115.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-31.48	-19.67	-11.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)	83.76	95.56	103.43
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	260.90	260.90	260.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.40
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.32	0.37	0.40
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.48	0.53	0.56
WACC / Discount Rate	8.12%	8.12%	8.12%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$19.44	$34.74	$97.00
Upside / Downside	-60.31%	-29.10%	98.01%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	157.39	167.62	178.51	190.11	202.47	215.63	222.10
Payout Ratio	26.78%	39.43%	52.07%	64.71%	77.36%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	42.15	66.08	92.95	123.03	156.62	194.07	205.44

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.12%	8.12%	8.12%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	60.55	61.12	61.70
Year 2 PV (M)	78.03	79.51	81.01
Year 3 PV (M)	94.63	97.34	100.11
Year 4 PV (M)	110.38	114.62	118.99
Year 5 PV (M)	125.31	131.36	137.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,591.65	2,716.82	2,846.79
Equity Value (M)	3,060.53	3,200.78	3,346.24
Shares Outstanding (M)	260.90	260.90	260.90
Fair Value	$11.73	$12.27	$12.83
Upside / Downside	-76.05%	-74.96%	-73.82%

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MeiG Smart Technology Co., Ltd (002881.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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