Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Changzhou Nrb Corporation (002708.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.70 - $26.39$8.93
Multi-Stage$2.72 - $2.98$2.85
Blended Fair Value$5.89
Current Price$13.95
Upside-57.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS18.64%4.64%0.050.050.040.020.010.020.040.050.040.06
YoY Growth--7.52%29.55%60.77%48.22%-29.18%-46.64%-22.30%24.47%-27.45%78.80%
Dividend Yield--0.38%0.44%0.55%0.41%0.25%0.34%0.40%0.87%0.34%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)74.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)51.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.889.305.58
Cash Retained (M)51.1451.1451.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.88-9.30-5.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)36.2641.8445.56
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)560.80560.80560.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4.70$8.93$26.39
Upside / Downside-66.33%-35.99%89.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)74.4279.2684.4189.9095.74101.96105.02
Payout Ratio31.28%43.03%54.77%66.51%78.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23.2834.1046.2359.7974.9291.7797.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.88%7.88%7.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31.3131.6131.91
Year 2 PV (M)38.9839.7240.47
Year 3 PV (M)46.2947.6248.97
Year 4 PV (M)53.2655.3157.41
Year 5 PV (M)59.9062.7965.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,298.001,360.691,425.79
Equity Value (M)1,527.731,597.741,670.34
Shares Outstanding (M)560.80560.80560.80
Fair Value$2.72$2.85$2.98
Upside / Downside-80.47%-79.58%-78.65%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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