Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Kuangda Technology Group Co., Ltd. (002516.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.44 - $2.42$1.87
Multi-Stage$2.74 - $3.00$2.87
Blended Fair Value$2.37
Current Price$6.24
Upside-62.03%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-17.04%6.77%0.100.190.050.050.240.240.300.070.090.07
YoY Growth---50.00%300.00%-3.56%-79.61%-0.10%-18.07%299.29%-17.03%22.87%46.88%
Dividend Yield--1.86%3.98%0.94%1.10%7.60%8.38%8.56%1.35%1.33%1.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)117.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)62.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.1222.5813.55
Cash Retained (M)62.9562.9562.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.12-22.58-13.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.8340.3749.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.521,503.521,503.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Fair Value$1.44$1.87$2.42
Upside / Downside-76.94%-70.03%-61.15%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.62182.18183.77185.36186.97188.59194.25
Payout Ratio65.15%70.12%75.09%80.06%85.03%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)117.67127.74137.99148.40158.98169.73179.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate-0.13%0.87%1.87%
Year 1 PV (M)118.72119.91121.09
Year 2 PV (M)119.17121.57123.99
Year 3 PV (M)119.11122.72126.41
Year 4 PV (M)118.58123.41128.37
Year 5 PV (M)117.66123.67129.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,521.113,700.963,888.09
Equity Value (M)4,114.354,312.234,517.88
Shares Outstanding (M)1,503.521,503.521,503.52
Fair Value$2.74$2.87$3.00
Upside / Downside-56.15%-54.04%-51.85%

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