Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fujian Star-net Communication Co., Ltd. (002396.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Communication EquipmentSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$25.61 - $110.40$44.41
Multi-Stage$15.94 - $17.41$16.66
Blended Fair Value$30.54
Current Price$30.35
Upside0.61%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.02%5.69%0.320.140.170.150.140.110.150.100.090.06
YoY Growth--118.05%-13.98%13.73%8.33%21.90%-23.50%53.30%9.82%39.58%-65.67%
Dividend Yield--1.58%0.83%0.71%0.73%0.69%0.31%0.60%0.39%0.46%0.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)486.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)173.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)312.29
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)97.2560.7836.47
Cash Retained (M)312.29312.29312.29
(-) Cash Required (M)-97.25-60.78-36.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)215.05251.51275.83
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)582.36582.36582.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.370.430.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.670.730.77
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$25.61$44.41$110.40
Upside / Downside-15.63%46.32%263.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)486.24517.84551.50587.35625.53666.19686.18
Payout Ratio35.77%46.62%57.46%68.31%79.15%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)173.94241.41316.92401.22495.14599.57634.71

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.25%8.25%8.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)220.92223.01225.10
Year 2 PV (M)265.39270.44275.54
Year 3 PV (M)307.45316.28325.27
Year 4 PV (M)347.21360.56374.30
Year 5 PV (M)384.75403.33422.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,755.028,129.598,518.49
Equity Value (M)9,280.739,703.2110,141.34
Shares Outstanding (M)582.36582.36582.36
Fair Value$15.94$16.66$17.41
Upside / Downside-47.49%-45.10%-42.62%

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