Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Salubris Pharmaceuticals Co., Ltd. (002294.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.40 - $6.38$5.36
Multi-Stage$8.09 - $8.86$8.47
Blended Fair Value$6.92
Current Price$60.35
Upside-88.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.53%3.36%0.490.490.400.010.480.770.761.040.190.41
YoY Growth---0.61%24.52%2,738.49%-97.09%-37.28%1.10%-27.35%462.52%-55.02%16.98%
Dividend Yield--1.49%1.67%1.12%0.06%1.27%4.31%2.75%2.41%0.65%1.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)672.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)557.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)115.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)134.5184.0750.44
Cash Retained (M)115.09115.09115.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-134.51-84.07-50.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)-19.4231.0264.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.151,114.151,114.15
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.030.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.020.030.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.480.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Fair Value$4.40$5.36$6.38
Upside / Downside-92.71%-91.11%-89.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)672.56664.65656.83649.10641.46633.91652.93
Payout Ratio82.89%84.31%85.73%87.16%88.58%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)557.47560.37563.12565.72568.19570.52603.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate-2.18%-1.18%-0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)510.98516.20521.43
Year 2 PV (M)468.23477.85487.57
Year 3 PV (M)428.94442.23455.79
Year 4 PV (M)392.84409.15425.97
Year 5 PV (M)359.69378.45397.99
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,853.897,211.457,583.77
Equity Value (M)9,014.579,435.349,872.52
Shares Outstanding (M)1,114.151,114.151,114.15
Fair Value$8.09$8.47$8.86
Upside / Downside-86.59%-85.97%-85.32%

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