Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Suzhou Hailu Heavy Industry Co.,Ltd (002255.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.00 - $7.61$6.22
Multi-Stage$6.00 - $6.58$6.29
Blended Fair Value$6.26
Current Price$8.35
Upside-25.08%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-69.55%-40.47%0.000.000.000.000.020.040.040.000.020.05
YoY Growth---48.68%803.61%-98.76%-89.11%-58.33%2.56%1,578.28%-88.85%-54.21%142.54%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.04%0.38%1.30%0.90%0.04%0.23%0.65%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)455.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)455.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)91.2057.0034.20
Cash Retained (M)455.82455.82455.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-91.20-57.00-34.20
(=) Excess Retained (M)364.62398.82421.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)833.52833.52833.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.440.480.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.440.480.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate1.12%2.12%3.12%
Fair Value$5.00$6.22$7.61
Upside / Downside-40.14%-25.47%-8.83%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)455.98465.66475.55485.65495.96506.50521.69
Payout Ratio0.03%18.03%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.1683.95171.30262.32357.13455.85482.57

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate1.12%2.12%3.12%
Year 1 PV (M)75.5876.3377.08
Year 2 PV (M)138.86141.62144.41
Year 3 PV (M)191.46197.20203.05
Year 4 PV (M)234.69244.12253.82
Year 5 PV (M)269.72283.32297.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,091.594,297.944,512.53
Equity Value (M)5,001.925,240.535,488.35
Shares Outstanding (M)833.52833.52833.52
Fair Value$6.00$6.29$6.58
Upside / Downside-28.13%-24.70%-21.14%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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