Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

ShenZhen Woer Heat-Shrinkable Material Co.,Ltd. (002130.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$59.36 - $161.85$151.68
Multi-Stage$22.82 - $24.97$23.87
Blended Fair Value$87.78
Current Price$30.51
Upside187.69%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.66%17.00%0.210.040.110.030.110.110.130.110.120.07
YoY Growth--421.04%-62.08%251.89%-72.05%-2.41%-14.73%17.24%-10.01%78.57%57.71%
Dividend Yield--1.04%0.36%1.39%0.48%1.70%2.52%2.25%2.03%1.86%1.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,014.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)401.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)612.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)202.86126.7976.07
Cash Retained (M)612.82612.82612.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-202.86-126.79-76.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)409.96486.03536.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.331,246.331,246.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
LTM Dividend per Share0.320.320.32
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.330.390.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.710.75
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$59.36$151.68$161.85
Upside / Downside94.56%397.14%430.48%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,014.291,080.221,150.441,225.221,304.861,389.671,431.36
Payout Ratio39.58%49.67%59.75%69.83%79.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)401.48536.50687.38855.601,042.791,250.701,324.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)498.29503.01507.74
Year 2 PV (M)592.96604.25615.65
Year 3 PV (M)685.51705.19725.24
Year 4 PV (M)775.98805.82836.52
Year 5 PV (M)864.41906.16949.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,021.7726,230.3327,485.14
Equity Value (M)28,438.9129,754.7631,119.79
Shares Outstanding (M)1,246.331,246.331,246.33
Fair Value$22.82$23.87$24.97
Upside / Downside-25.21%-21.75%-18.16%

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