DDM Analysis: 002016.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.41 - $0.53	$0.47
Multi-Stage	$1.75 - $1.97	$1.86
Blended Fair Value	$1.17
Current Price	$6.11
Upside	-80.90%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-37.39%	-10.31%	0.06	0.00	0.31	0.13	0.07	0.64	0.82	0.46	0.13	0.24
YoY Growth	-	-	47,796.48%	-99.96%	134.96%	99.38%	-89.75%	-22.20%	77.06%	259.61%	-47.42%	34.37%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.05%	0.00%	4.82%	1.68%	1.06%	9.37%	7.38%	3.38%	1.38%	2.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	137.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	20.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	117.30

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	27.51	17.19	10.32
Cash Retained (M)	117.30	117.30	117.30
(-) Cash Required (M)	-27.51	-17.19	-10.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)	89.79	100.11	106.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	810.67	810.67	810.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.11	0.12	0.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.14	0.15	0.16
WACC / Discount Rate	5.51%	5.51%	5.51%
Growth Rate	-20.65%	-19.65%	-18.65%
Fair Value	$0.41	$0.47	$0.53
Upside / Downside	-93.26%	-92.24%	-91.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	137.56	110.53	88.82	71.37	57.35	46.08	47.47
Payout Ratio	14.72%	29.78%	44.83%	59.89%	74.94%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	20.25	32.92	39.82	42.74	42.98	41.47	43.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.51%	5.51%	5.51%
Growth Rate	-20.65%	-19.65%	-18.65%
Year 1 PV (M)	30.81	31.20	31.59
Year 2 PV (M)	34.89	35.77	36.67
Year 3 PV (M)	35.05	36.39	37.77
Year 4 PV (M)	32.99	34.68	36.44
Year 5 PV (M)	29.79	31.72	33.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,256.38	1,337.57	1,422.89
Equity Value (M)	1,419.91	1,507.32	1,599.09
Shares Outstanding (M)	810.67	810.67	810.67
Fair Value	$1.75	$1.86	$1.97
Upside / Downside	-71.33%	-69.57%	-67.72%

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Guangdong Shirongzhaoye Co., Ltd. (002016.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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