DDM Analysis: 001965.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$89.05 - $149.48	$140.09
Multi-Stage	$23.84 - $26.12	$24.96
Blended Fair Value	$82.52
Current Price	$9.74
Upside	747.25%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	28.70%	16.02%	0.81	0.57	0.50	0.32	0.41	0.23	0.33	0.22	0.50	0.66
YoY Growth	-	-	41.39%	13.95%	59.06%	-23.84%	80.94%	-31.44%	50.13%	-55.74%	-24.26%	262.63%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.10%	5.15%	5.92%	4.04%	5.27%	3.30%	3.63%	2.37%	4.39%	5.80%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,174.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,067.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,106.82

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,034.82	646.77	388.06
Cash Retained (M)	4,106.82	4,106.82	4,106.82
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,034.82	-646.77	-388.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,071.99	3,460.05	3,718.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	6,883.83	6,883.83	6,883.83
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.45	0.50	0.54
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.45	0.50	0.54
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.60	0.66	0.70
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$89.05	$140.09	$149.48
Upside / Downside	814.29%	1,338.25%	1,434.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,174.12	5,510.44	5,868.62	6,250.08	6,656.34	7,089.00	7,301.67
Payout Ratio	20.63%	34.50%	48.38%	62.25%	76.13%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,067.31	1,901.23	2,839.04	3,890.75	5,067.17	6,380.10	6,754.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.21%	6.21%	6.21%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,773.22	1,790.02	1,806.83
Year 2 PV (M)	2,469.61	2,516.64	2,564.13
Year 3 PV (M)	3,156.57	3,247.19	3,339.52
Year 4 PV (M)	3,834.22	3,981.67	4,133.34
Year 5 PV (M)	4,502.63	4,720.11	4,945.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	148,380.53	155,547.37	162,988.49
Equity Value (M)	164,116.78	171,803.00	179,778.22
Shares Outstanding (M)	6,883.83	6,883.83	6,883.83
Fair Value	$23.84	$24.96	$26.12
Upside / Downside	144.77%	156.24%	168.13%

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China Merchants Expressway Network & Technology Holdings Co.,Ltd. (001965.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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