Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Goworld Co., Ltd. (000823.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Consumer ElectronicsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.66 - $15.34$10.65
Multi-Stage$11.72 - $12.86$12.28
Blended Fair Value$11.46
Current Price$13.88
Upside-17.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.34%0.67%0.180.190.160.160.130.140.120.140.060.17
YoY Growth---5.27%19.96%-2.07%21.12%-3.78%10.79%-9.69%111.68%-61.01%-0.22%
Dividend Yield--1.68%2.16%1.38%1.44%1.34%1.21%1.16%1.40%0.44%1.84%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)246.61
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)134.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.3230.8318.50
Cash Retained (M)112.27112.27112.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.32-30.83-18.50
(=) Excess Retained (M)62.9581.4493.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)536.96536.96536.96
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.150.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.370.400.42
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate1.52%2.52%3.52%
Fair Value$7.66$10.65$15.34
Upside / Downside-44.79%-23.25%10.49%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)246.61252.83259.20265.74272.44279.31287.69
Payout Ratio54.48%61.58%68.69%75.79%82.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)134.34155.69178.04201.40225.84251.38266.11

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.39%6.39%6.39%
Growth Rate1.52%2.52%3.52%
Year 1 PV (M)144.92146.34147.77
Year 2 PV (M)154.24157.29160.38
Year 3 PV (M)162.41167.25172.20
Year 4 PV (M)169.50176.28183.26
Year 5 PV (M)175.61184.43193.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,485.135,760.656,047.13
Equity Value (M)6,291.816,592.256,904.34
Shares Outstanding (M)536.96536.96536.96
Fair Value$11.72$12.28$12.86
Upside / Downside-15.58%-11.55%-7.36%

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