Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co.,Ltd. (000729.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Beverages - AlcoholicSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.61 - $11.08$8.57
Multi-Stage$6.70 - $7.34$7.01
Blended Fair Value$7.79
Current Price$12.13
Upside-35.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS38.57%0.76%0.110.090.050.020.020.020.020.040.080.10
YoY Growth--19.63%98.16%115.55%0.00%0.00%-10.72%-44.63%-45.90%-18.78%-2.85%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.98%0.33%0.30%0.30%0.36%0.37%0.58%1.08%1.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,538.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)12.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,525.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)307.61192.26115.35
Cash Retained (M)1,525.141,525.141,525.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-307.61-192.26-115.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,217.531,332.891,409.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,850.412,850.412,850.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.430.470.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Fair Value$6.61$8.57$11.08
Upside / Downside-45.51%-29.33%-8.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,538.051,600.231,664.931,732.241,802.271,875.141,931.39
Payout Ratio0.84%18.67%36.50%54.34%72.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)12.90298.78607.75941.221,300.661,687.631,786.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Year 1 PV (M)269.57272.18274.80
Year 2 PV (M)494.71504.35514.10
Year 3 PV (M)691.23711.55732.26
Year 4 PV (M)861.79895.73930.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,008.841,058.751,110.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,767.5316,547.6217,358.28
Equity Value (M)19,093.6619,990.1920,920.73
Shares Outstanding (M)2,850.412,850.412,850.41
Fair Value$6.70$7.01$7.34
Upside / Downside-44.78%-42.18%-39.49%

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