Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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SDIC Fengle Seed Co., Ltd. (000713.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.73 - $1.12$0.92
Multi-Stage$1.20 - $1.32$1.26
Blended Fair Value$1.09
Current Price$6.82
Upside-84.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.30%-3.34%0.030.030.030.020.030.030.030.000.020.03
YoY Growth--6.20%-14.35%52.75%-27.26%5.55%14.54%570.22%-78.24%-38.46%-35.07%
Dividend Yield--0.44%0.43%0.35%0.23%0.32%0.40%0.75%0.10%0.31%0.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)50.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.18
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.046.273.76
Cash Retained (M)33.1833.1833.18
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.04-6.27-3.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)23.1526.9129.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)614.92614.92614.92
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.13%8.13%8.13%
Growth Rate-0.70%0.30%1.30%
Fair Value$0.73$0.92$1.12
Upside / Downside-89.23%-86.58%-83.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)50.1850.3350.4850.6450.7950.9452.47
Payout Ratio33.87%45.10%56.32%67.55%78.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.0022.7028.4334.2040.0145.8548.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.13%8.13%8.13%
Growth Rate-0.70%0.30%1.30%
Year 1 PV (M)20.7820.9921.20
Year 2 PV (M)23.8424.3224.81
Year 3 PV (M)26.2527.0627.87
Year 4 PV (M)28.1229.2730.45
Year 5 PV (M)29.5031.0232.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)609.13640.42672.99
Equity Value (M)737.62773.08809.92
Shares Outstanding (M)614.92614.92614.92
Fair Value$1.20$1.26$1.32
Upside / Downside-82.41%-81.57%-80.69%

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