Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

DongGuan Winnerway Industry Zone Ltd. (000573.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.54 - $0.74$0.64
Multi-Stage$1.67 - $1.84$1.76
Blended Fair Value$1.20
Current Price$4.15
Upside-71.12%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.74%-7.73%0.070.080.100.060.100.060.080.100.100.18
YoY Growth---8.36%-20.00%66.67%-40.97%66.61%-25.93%-15.59%-3.99%-44.14%11.03%
Dividend Yield--1.61%2.76%2.76%1.37%3.75%2.24%2.20%2.08%1.22%2.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)65.25
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)41.21
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)13.058.164.89
Cash Retained (M)24.0424.0424.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-13.05-8.16-4.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.9915.8819.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)638.29638.29638.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-7.59%-6.59%-5.59%
Fair Value$0.54$0.64$0.74
Upside / Downside-87.01%-84.53%-82.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)65.2560.9556.9353.1849.6846.4047.79
Payout Ratio63.16%68.53%73.90%79.26%84.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)41.2141.7742.0742.1542.0441.7644.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-7.59%-6.59%-5.59%
Year 1 PV (M)38.8339.2539.67
Year 2 PV (M)36.3537.1537.94
Year 3 PV (M)33.8634.9736.11
Year 4 PV (M)31.3932.7734.20
Year 5 PV (M)28.9930.5932.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)895.96945.50997.20
Equity Value (M)1,065.381,120.221,177.38
Shares Outstanding (M)638.29638.29638.29
Fair Value$1.67$1.76$1.84
Upside / Downside-59.78%-57.71%-55.55%

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