Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Industry

Sector

Zangge Mining Company Limited (000408.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$41.66 - $88.49$59.17
Multi-Stage$29.67 - $32.45$31.03
Blended Fair Value$45.10
Current Price$58.33
Upside-22.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS129.79%167.99%1.071.771.920.000.000.020.030.390.040.06
YoY Growth---39.59%-7.96%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-41.93%-92.60%894.50%-38.76%113,786.41%
Dividend Yield--2.98%5.58%7.95%0.00%0.00%0.28%0.23%2.32%0.24%0.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,462.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3.34
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,459.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)692.57432.86259.71
Cash Retained (M)3,459.513,459.513,459.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-692.57-432.86-259.71
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,766.943,026.653,199.79
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,562.391,562.391,562.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.771.942.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.771.942.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.771.942.05
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$41.66$59.17$88.49
Upside / Downside-28.59%1.44%51.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,462.843,687.933,927.644,182.944,454.834,744.404,886.73
Payout Ratio0.10%18.08%36.06%54.04%72.02%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3.34666.671,416.222,260.403,208.344,269.964,520.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.99%9.99%9.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)600.42606.11611.81
Year 2 PV (M)1,148.751,170.631,192.72
Year 3 PV (M)1,651.301,698.711,747.01
Year 4 PV (M)2,110.912,192.082,275.58
Year 5 PV (M)2,530.232,652.442,779.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)38,315.9740,166.6442,088.15
Equity Value (M)46,357.5748,486.6150,694.59
Shares Outstanding (M)1,562.391,562.391,562.39
Fair Value$29.67$31.03$32.45
Upside / Downside-49.13%-46.80%-44.37%

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