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Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.,Ltd. (000088.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.82 - $54.17$50.76
Multi-Stage$8.05 - $8.81$8.42
Blended Fair Value$29.59
Current Price$4.43
Upside568.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS43.47%26.15%0.170.050.040.010.020.030.020.020.030.03
YoY Growth--257.53%9.48%471.44%-67.67%-15.94%18.40%29.05%-25.95%-6.51%58.73%
Dividend Yield--3.67%1.02%0.88%0.15%0.40%0.70%0.38%0.28%0.35%0.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,416.20
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)755.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)660.57
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)283.24177.03106.22
Cash Retained (M)660.57660.57660.57
(-) Cash Required (M)-283.24-177.03-106.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)377.33483.54554.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,199.485,199.485,199.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.220.240.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$22.82$50.76$54.17
Upside / Downside415.14%1,045.91%1,122.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,416.201,508.261,606.291,710.701,821.901,940.321,998.53
Payout Ratio53.36%60.69%68.01%75.34%82.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)755.63915.291,092.501,288.891,506.191,746.291,848.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)851.30859.37867.43
Year 2 PV (M)945.08963.08981.25
Year 3 PV (M)1,037.011,066.781,097.12
Year 4 PV (M)1,127.131,170.471,215.06
Year 5 PV (M)1,215.441,274.151,335.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)36,685.2638,457.1740,296.90
Equity Value (M)41,861.2243,791.0245,792.86
Shares Outstanding (M)5,199.485,199.485,199.48
Fair Value$8.05$8.42$8.81
Upside / Downside81.74%90.12%98.81%

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