Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Compañía Sud Americana de Vapores S.A. (VAPORES.SN)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.09 - $0.12$0.10
Multi-Stage$0.14 - $0.15$0.14
Blended Fair Value$0.12
Current Price$0.05
Upside144.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.030.010.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---29.78%-99.88%121.66%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.04%0.04%28.38%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)648.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)395.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)253.36
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)129.7581.1048.66
Cash Retained (M)253.36253.36253.36
(-) Cash Required (M)-129.75-81.10-48.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)123.61172.26204.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)48,867.6848,867.6848,867.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.010.010.01
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.09$0.10$0.12
Upside / Downside70.40%105.40%141.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)648.77642.28635.86629.50623.21616.98635.48
Payout Ratio60.95%66.76%72.57%78.38%84.19%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)395.41428.78461.44493.40524.68555.28587.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)385.86389.80393.74
Year 2 PV (M)373.69381.36389.10
Year 3 PV (M)359.59370.71382.05
Year 4 PV (M)344.11358.37373.07
Year 5 PV (M)327.73344.80362.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,957.015,215.135,483.90
Equity Value (M)6,748.007,060.177,384.43
Shares Outstanding (M)48,867.6848,867.6848,867.68
Fair Value$0.14$0.14$0.15
Upside / Downside171.26%183.81%196.84%

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