Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

PT Saraswanti Indoland Development Tbk (SWID.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DevelopmentSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.38 - $122.99$96.67
Multi-Stage$225.68 - $249.04$237.13
Blended Fair Value$166.90
Current Price$93.00
Upside79.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%1.091.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.82%1.49%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37,395.47
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)8,002.31
(=) Cash Retained (M)29,393.16
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,479.094,674.432,804.66
Cash Retained (M)29,393.1629,393.1629,393.16
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,479.09-4,674.43-2,804.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)21,914.0724,718.7326,588.50
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,385.025,385.025,385.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.074.594.94
LTM Dividend per Share1.491.491.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.074.594.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.566.086.42
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$75.38$96.67$122.99
Upside / Downside-18.95%3.95%32.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37,395.4737,021.5136,651.3036,284.7935,921.9435,562.7236,629.60
Payout Ratio21.40%35.12%48.84%62.56%76.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)8,002.3113,001.7017,900.3022,699.6427,401.1932,006.4533,882.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.22%5.22%5.22%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)12,231.5412,356.3612,481.17
Year 2 PV (M)15,842.4616,167.4316,495.69
Year 3 PV (M)18,900.0219,484.5220,080.94
Year 4 PV (M)21,463.1722,352.7223,269.64
Year 5 PV (M)23,585.3924,813.5326,092.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,123,268.081,181,759.261,242,662.06
Equity Value (M)1,215,290.671,276,933.811,341,081.81
Shares Outstanding (M)5,385.025,385.025,385.02
Fair Value$225.68$237.13$249.04
Upside / Downside142.67%154.98%167.78%

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