Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Netcare Limited (NTC.JO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$22.99 - $35.13$28.67
Multi-Stage$34.01 - $37.23$35.59
Blended Fair Value$32.13
Current Price$14.22
Upside125.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS2.16%-2.03%0.750.000.640.570.000.681.571.091.020.98
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%10.99%0.00%-100.00%-56.91%43.80%7.10%3.68%6.38%
Dividend Yield--5.29%0.00%4.70%4.16%0.00%5.23%8.94%4.58%4.28%2.92%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,201.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,807.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,394.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)640.20400.13240.08
Cash Retained (M)1,394.001,394.001,394.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-640.20-400.13-240.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)753.80993.881,153.93
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,272.201,272.201,272.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.780.91
LTM Dividend per Share1.421.421.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.780.91
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.012.202.33
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Fair Value$22.99$28.67$35.13
Upside / Downside61.69%101.60%147.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,201.003,238.153,275.723,313.733,352.193,391.093,492.82
Payout Ratio56.45%63.16%69.87%76.58%83.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,807.002,045.242,288.772,537.672,792.043,051.983,230.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.93%8.93%8.93%
Growth Rate0.16%1.16%2.16%
Year 1 PV (M)1,859.021,877.581,896.15
Year 2 PV (M)1,890.961,928.911,967.23
Year 3 PV (M)1,905.711,963.362,022.17
Year 4 PV (M)1,905.831,983.092,062.67
Year 5 PV (M)1,893.581,990.022,090.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)33,807.4835,529.1937,320.33
Equity Value (M)43,262.6045,272.1547,358.89
Shares Outstanding (M)1,272.201,272.201,272.20
Fair Value$34.01$35.59$37.23
Upside / Downside139.14%150.25%161.79%

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