Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Novozymes A/S (NSIS-B.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.25 - $16.15$14.29
Multi-Stage$44.28 - $49.10$46.64
Blended Fair Value$30.46
Current Price$389.10
Upside-92.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.54%-10.84%0.546.083.283.153.193.092.832.572.281.99
YoY Growth---91.16%85.37%4.03%-1.21%3.13%9.27%10.40%12.35%14.70%17.53%
Dividend Yield--0.13%1.54%0.93%0.68%0.79%1.00%0.91%0.82%0.83%0.68%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,594.67
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,434.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)318.93199.33119.60
Cash Retained (M)160.26160.26160.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-318.93-199.33-119.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-158.68-39.0840.66
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)464.71464.71464.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share3.093.093.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.34-0.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.753.003.17
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-13.12%-12.12%-11.12%
Fair Value$12.25$14.29$16.15
Upside / Downside-96.85%-96.33%-95.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,594.671,401.421,231.591,082.34951.17835.90860.98
Payout Ratio89.95%89.96%89.97%89.98%89.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,434.411,260.721,108.06973.89855.96752.31796.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-13.12%-12.12%-11.12%
Year 1 PV (M)1,171.961,185.451,198.94
Year 2 PV (M)957.52979.691,002.12
Year 3 PV (M)782.33809.65837.61
Year 4 PV (M)639.19669.13700.10
Year 5 PV (M)522.23552.99585.17
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,503.7817,475.6818,492.84
Equity Value (M)20,577.0021,672.5922,816.78
Shares Outstanding (M)464.71464.71464.71
Fair Value$44.28$46.64$49.10
Upside / Downside-88.62%-88.01%-87.38%

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