DDM Analysis: MCGS.QA

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.69 - $4.08	$3.34
Multi-Stage	$5.86 - $6.44	$6.15
Blended Fair Value	$4.74
Current Price	$7.04
Upside	-32.61%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-5.24%	-3.01%	0.22	0.26	0.24	0.28	0.28	0.29	0.39	0.29	0.50	0.48
YoY Growth	-	-	-14.42%	6.50%	-12.59%	-0.88%	-3.24%	-26.03%	32.70%	-41.07%	3.52%	61.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.89%	6.15%	4.18%	3.91%	2.89%	4.91%	6.15%	4.25%	5.23%	4.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	86.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	55.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)	30.28

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.22	10.76	6.46
Cash Retained (M)	30.28	30.28	30.28
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.22	-10.76	-6.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)	13.06	19.52	23.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	281.26	281.26	281.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.24	0.27	0.28
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.10%	-1.10%	-0.10%
Fair Value	$2.69	$3.34	$4.08
Upside / Downside	-61.84%	-52.52%	-41.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	86.10	85.16	84.22	83.30	82.39	81.49	83.93
Payout Ratio	64.83%	69.87%	74.90%	79.93%	84.97%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	55.82	59.50	63.08	66.59	70.00	73.34	77.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.83%	6.83%	6.83%
Growth Rate	-2.10%	-1.10%	-0.10%
Year 1 PV (M)	55.13	55.69	56.25
Year 2 PV (M)	54.16	55.27	56.40
Year 3 PV (M)	52.97	54.61	56.29
Year 4 PV (M)	51.60	53.74	55.95
Year 5 PV (M)	50.09	52.70	55.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,384.30	1,456.45	1,531.58
Equity Value (M)	1,648.25	1,728.48	1,811.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	281.26	281.26	281.26
Fair Value	$5.86	$6.15	$6.44
Upside / Downside	-16.76%	-12.71%	-8.49%

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Medicare Group Q.P.S.C. (MCGS.QA)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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