Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Deutsche Lufthansa AG (LHA.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Airlines, Airports & Air ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.76 - $19.69$15.98
Multi-Stage$24.32 - $26.77$25.52
Blended Fair Value$20.75
Current Price$7.21
Upside187.77%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.48%5.30%0.310.020.010.020.020.320.290.190.190.01
YoY Growth--1,388.00%212.50%-57.89%-9.52%-94.49%9.17%50.43%-0.43%1,564.29%-93.69%
Dividend Yield--4.63%0.29%0.07%0.22%0.22%5.21%2.08%1.05%1.79%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,643.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)369.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,274.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)328.60205.38123.23
Cash Retained (M)1,274.001,274.001,274.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-328.60-205.38-123.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)945.401,068.631,150.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.951,197.951,197.95
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.790.890.96
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.790.890.96
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.101.201.27
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Fair Value$12.76$15.98$19.69
Upside / Downside76.93%121.60%173.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,643.001,636.881,630.781,624.701,618.651,612.621,660.99
Payout Ratio22.46%35.97%49.48%62.98%76.49%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)369.00588.74806.831,023.301,238.131,451.351,536.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.11%7.11%7.11%
Growth Rate-1.37%-0.37%0.63%
Year 1 PV (M)544.14549.66555.17
Year 2 PV (M)689.22703.27717.46
Year 3 PV (M)807.91832.73858.06
Year 4 PV (M)903.48940.68979.02
Year 5 PV (M)978.841,029.481,082.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)25,209.6726,513.8827,871.51
Equity Value (M)29,133.2530,569.6932,063.41
Shares Outstanding (M)1,197.951,197.951,197.95
Fair Value$24.32$25.52$26.77
Upside / Downside237.30%253.93%271.22%

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