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Definitive Analysis

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PT Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia Tbk (ISSP.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,687.32 - $14,818.54$5,182.83
Multi-Stage$2,140.15 - $2,346.96$2,241.62
Blended Fair Value$3,712.23
Current Price$330.00
Upside1,024.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%22.12%15.006.009.006.000.000.000.001.505.000.00
YoY Growth--150.00%-33.33%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-70.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--5.73%2.07%3.57%1.44%0.00%0.00%0.00%1.17%2.25%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)533,854.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)105,980.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)427,874.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)106,770.8066,731.7540,039.05
Cash Retained (M)427,874.00427,874.00427,874.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-106,770.80-66,731.75-40,039.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)321,103.20361,142.25387,834.95
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,065.347,065.347,065.34
(=) Excess Retained per Share45.4551.1154.89
LTM Dividend per Share15.0015.0015.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share45.4551.1154.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend60.4566.1169.89
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.01%5.01%6.01%
Fair Value$2,687.32$5,182.83$14,818.54
Upside / Downside714.34%1,470.56%4,390.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)533,854.00560,596.88588,679.42618,168.72649,135.26681,653.04702,102.63
Payout Ratio19.85%33.88%47.91%61.94%75.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)105,980.00189,938.61282,042.91382,898.33493,150.48613,487.73649,444.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate4.01%5.01%6.01%
Year 1 PV (M)176,898.63178,599.42180,300.22
Year 2 PV (M)244,645.72249,372.64254,144.78
Year 3 PV (M)309,326.49318,334.62327,515.97
Year 4 PV (M)371,043.07385,519.79400,416.05
Year 5 PV (M)429,894.58450,961.95472,847.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,589,079.5114,255,024.5514,946,825.59
Equity Value (M)15,120,888.0015,837,812.9716,582,049.88
Shares Outstanding (M)7,065.347,065.347,065.34
Fair Value$2,140.15$2,241.62$2,346.96
Upside / Downside548.53%579.28%611.20%

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