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Definitive Analysis

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Gulf Energy Development Public Company Limited (GULF-R.BK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Renewable UtilitiesSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$536.72 - $1,256.53$1,177.55
Multi-Stage$182.76 - $200.19$191.31
Blended Fair Value$684.43
Current Price$38.75
Upside1,666.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.17%0.00%0.820.560.410.360.220.200.070.000.000.00
YoY Growth--46.67%36.36%15.79%60.77%8.34%199.99%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.66%1.28%0.78%0.69%0.66%0.69%0.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79,196.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11,849.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)67,346.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15,839.359,899.595,939.76
Cash Retained (M)67,346.9567,346.9567,346.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-15,839.35-9,899.59-5,939.76
(=) Excess Retained (M)51,507.6057,447.3561,407.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)12,534.7512,534.7512,534.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.114.584.90
LTM Dividend per Share0.950.950.95
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.114.584.90
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.055.535.84
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$536.72$1,177.55$1,256.53
Upside / Downside1,285.09%2,938.84%3,142.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79,196.7484,344.5289,826.9295,665.67101,883.94108,506.39111,761.58
Payout Ratio14.96%29.97%44.98%59.98%74.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11,849.7925,278.0440,401.8957,385.0476,405.3197,655.75103,379.46

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23,513.8023,736.6823,959.56
Year 2 PV (M)34,959.1535,625.0236,297.18
Year 3 PV (M)46,188.8847,514.8048,865.85
Year 4 PV (M)57,206.0459,406.0261,668.85
Year 5 PV (M)68,013.6071,298.6874,709.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,060,945.402,160,489.842,263,844.07
Equity Value (M)2,290,826.882,398,071.052,509,345.01
Shares Outstanding (M)12,534.7512,534.7512,534.75
Fair Value$182.76$191.31$200.19
Upside / Downside371.63%393.71%416.62%

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