Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Elbit Systems Ltd. (ESLT)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.71 - $429.59$281.23
Multi-Stage$145.71 - $159.19$152.33
Blended Fair Value$216.78
Current Price$509.80
Upside-57.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.29%2.68%1.921.931.881.711.691.351.631.631.481.51
YoY Growth---0.32%2.80%9.65%1.25%24.95%-16.90%0.01%10.01%-1.93%2.22%
Dividend Yield--0.50%0.93%1.10%0.78%1.18%1.06%1.24%1.35%1.30%1.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)463.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)99.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)364.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)92.7257.9534.77
Cash Retained (M)364.44364.44364.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-92.72-57.95-34.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)271.72306.49329.67
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.2146.2146.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share5.886.637.13
LTM Dividend per Share2.152.152.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share5.886.637.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend8.038.789.28
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Fair Value$195.71$281.23$429.59
Upside / Downside-61.61%-44.84%-15.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)463.58492.73523.72556.65591.66628.86647.73
Payout Ratio21.39%35.11%48.83%62.55%76.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)99.14172.99255.74348.21451.30565.98599.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.61%9.61%9.61%
Growth Rate5.29%6.29%7.29%
Year 1 PV (M)156.35157.83159.32
Year 2 PV (M)208.89212.88216.90
Year 3 PV (M)257.05264.45271.98
Year 4 PV (M)301.10312.70324.64
Year 5 PV (M)341.27357.79374.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,469.065,733.766,008.61
Equity Value (M)6,733.737,039.427,356.40
Shares Outstanding (M)46.2146.2146.21
Fair Value$145.71$152.33$159.19
Upside / Downside-71.42%-70.12%-68.77%

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