Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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CMC Markets plc (CMCX.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.04 - $21.23$14.24
Multi-Stage$7.31 - $7.99$7.65
Blended Fair Value$10.94
Current Price$2.07
Upside428.55%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS22.99%9.16%0.100.050.130.260.230.040.080.090.090.09
YoY Growth--109.70%-60.94%-51.74%16.86%509.04%-51.64%-17.99%7.40%-3.97%108.66%
Dividend Yield--5.05%2.19%7.26%10.38%4.69%2.07%9.25%5.55%7.21%3.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)147.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)124.41
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.4818.4211.05
Cash Retained (M)124.41124.41124.41
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.48-18.42-11.05
(=) Excess Retained (M)94.93105.98113.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)274.36274.36274.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.350.390.41
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.430.470.50
WACC / Discount Rate10.02%10.02%10.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.04$14.24$21.23
Upside / Downside384.95%587.72%925.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)147.38156.95167.16178.02189.59201.92207.97
Payout Ratio15.59%30.47%45.35%60.23%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.9747.8275.81107.23142.42181.72192.38

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.02%10.02%10.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)43.0643.4743.88
Year 2 PV (M)61.4662.6363.81
Year 3 PV (M)78.2880.5382.82
Year 4 PV (M)93.6297.22100.92
Year 5 PV (M)107.56112.75118.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,622.861,701.251,782.63
Equity Value (M)2,006.842,097.842,192.20
Shares Outstanding (M)274.36274.36274.36
Fair Value$7.31$7.65$7.99
Upside / Downside253.36%269.38%286.00%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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