Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Caledonia Mining Corporation Plc (CMCL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: GoldSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$210.79 - $511.45$479.30
Multi-Stage$74.64 - $81.69$78.10
Blended Fair Value$278.70
Current Price$36.21
Upside669.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS32.88%13.01%0.640.580.460.420.240.150.180.170.160.13
YoY Growth--10.84%24.62%10.37%77.65%52.98%-15.10%5.65%10.55%19.57%-30.83%
Dividend Yield--5.11%5.29%3.04%2.75%1.65%1.66%3.09%2.42%2.19%3.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)17.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)31.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9.926.203.72
Cash Retained (M)31.8031.8031.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-9.92-6.20-3.72
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.8825.6028.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)19.2819.2819.28
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.131.331.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.920.920.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.131.331.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$210.79$479.30$511.45
Upside / Downside482.14%1,223.67%1,312.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49.5952.8256.2559.9163.8067.9569.99
Payout Ratio35.87%46.70%57.52%68.35%79.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)17.7924.6732.3640.9550.5161.1564.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)22.9423.1523.37
Year 2 PV (M)27.9828.5129.05
Year 3 PV (M)32.9233.8734.83
Year 4 PV (M)37.7739.2240.72
Year 5 PV (M)42.5244.5746.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,275.211,336.801,400.75
Equity Value (M)1,439.341,506.131,575.42
Shares Outstanding (M)19.2819.2819.28
Fair Value$74.64$78.10$81.69
Upside / Downside106.12%115.69%125.61%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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