DDM Analysis: CAST.ST

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$40.16 - $57.27	$48.56
Multi-Stage	$116.17 - $128.46	$122.19
Blended Fair Value	$85.38
Current Price	$106.30
Upside	-19.68%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-26.77%	-6.63%	0.71	1.98	4.14	3.83	3.61	3.39	2.94	2.77	1.63	1.53
YoY Growth	-	-	-63.93%	-52.28%	8.00%	6.31%	6.54%	15.12%	6.00%	69.90%	6.63%	8.18%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.64%	1.43%	4.09%	1.96%	2.23%	2.40%	1.92%	2.42%	1.64%	1.63%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,038.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	654.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,384.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	607.60	379.75	227.85
Cash Retained (M)	2,384.00	2,384.00	2,384.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-607.60	-379.75	-227.85
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,776.40	2,004.25	2,156.15
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	492.32	492.32	492.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share	3.61	4.07	4.38
LTM Dividend per Share	1.33	1.33	1.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share	3.61	4.07	4.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend	4.94	5.40	5.71
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	-5.43%	-4.43%	-3.43%
Fair Value	$40.16	$48.56	$57.27
Upside / Downside	-62.22%	-54.31%	-46.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,038.00	2,903.41	2,774.79	2,651.87	2,534.39	2,422.11	2,494.78
Payout Ratio	21.53%	35.22%	48.92%	62.61%	76.31%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	654.00	1,022.64	1,357.33	1,660.36	1,933.88	2,179.90	2,307.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.20%	6.20%	6.20%
Growth Rate	-5.43%	-4.43%	-3.43%
Year 1 PV (M)	952.90	962.97	973.05
Year 2 PV (M)	1,178.52	1,203.57	1,228.89
Year 3 PV (M)	1,343.32	1,386.38	1,430.36
Year 4 PV (M)	1,457.91	1,520.56	1,585.21
Year 5 PV (M)	1,531.31	1,614.01	1,700.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)	50,728.93	53,468.35	56,324.84
Equity Value (M)	57,192.89	60,155.84	63,242.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	492.32	492.32	492.32
Fair Value	$116.17	$122.19	$128.46
Upside / Downside	9.29%	14.95%	20.85%

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VHI	Valhi, Inc.	2.63%	$0.32	49.46%
FHI	Federated Hermes, Inc.	2.62%	$1.37	27.23%
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UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	2.56%	$8.60	44.61%
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Castellum AB (publ) (CAST.ST)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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