Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ambu A/S (AMBU-B.CO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.38 - $18.92$15.44
Multi-Stage$16.66 - $18.26$17.45
Blended Fair Value$16.44
Current Price$99.40
Upside-83.46%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.280.270.350.370.350.280.170.17
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%2.78%-23.40%-4.08%6.52%22.67%63.04%2.22%200.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.31%0.16%0.13%0.33%0.21%0.26%0.30%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)359.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)102.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)257.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)71.8044.8826.93
Cash Retained (M)257.00257.00257.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-71.80-44.88-26.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)185.20212.13230.08
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)266.50266.50266.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.800.86
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.800.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Fair Value$12.38$15.44$18.92
Upside / Downside-87.54%-84.47%-80.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)359.00364.72370.52376.42382.42388.51400.16
Payout Ratio28.41%40.73%53.05%65.36%77.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)102.00148.55196.55246.05297.07349.66370.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.35%9.35%9.35%
Growth Rate0.59%1.59%2.59%
Year 1 PV (M)134.51135.85137.19
Year 2 PV (M)161.16164.39167.64
Year 3 PV (M)182.69188.19193.80
Year 4 PV (M)199.73207.79216.09
Year 5 PV (M)212.87223.67234.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,550.233,730.243,917.48
Equity Value (M)4,441.194,650.124,867.09
Shares Outstanding (M)266.50266.50266.50
Fair Value$16.66$17.45$18.26
Upside / Downside-83.23%-82.45%-81.63%

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