Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Migao Group Holdings Limited (9879.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.24 - $7.63$6.40
Multi-Stage$8.72 - $9.59$9.15
Blended Fair Value$7.77
Current Price$5.16
Upside50.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%0.070.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)559.95
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)55.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)504.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)111.9969.9942.00
Cash Retained (M)504.51504.51504.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-111.99-69.99-42.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)392.52434.51462.51
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)795.99795.99795.99
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.58
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.490.550.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.560.620.65
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$5.24$6.40$7.63
Upside / Downside1.56%23.99%47.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)559.95554.35548.81543.32537.89532.51548.48
Payout Ratio9.90%25.92%41.94%57.96%73.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)55.45143.70230.18314.91397.93479.26507.35

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.52%8.52%8.52%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)131.07132.41133.75
Year 2 PV (M)191.51195.44199.40
Year 3 PV (M)238.99246.38253.92
Year 4 PV (M)275.46286.88298.65
Year 5 PV (M)302.61318.37334.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,798.806,100.756,415.16
Equity Value (M)6,938.447,280.227,635.65
Shares Outstanding (M)795.99795.99795.99
Fair Value$8.72$9.15$9.59
Upside / Downside68.93%77.25%85.91%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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