Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Beida Jade Bird Universal Sci-Tech Company Limited (8095.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Travel ServicesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.46 - $0.71$0.58
Multi-Stage$1.00 - $1.10$1.05
Blended Fair Value$0.82
Current Price$0.56
Upside46.68%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.050.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---86.34%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.24%14.20%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)76.98
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)67.35
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.409.625.77
Cash Retained (M)67.3567.3567.35
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.40-9.62-5.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.9557.7261.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,514.461,514.461,514.46
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.040.05
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.46$0.58$0.71
Upside / Downside-16.53%4.39%28.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)76.9876.2175.4574.7073.9573.2175.41
Payout Ratio12.52%28.01%43.51%59.01%74.50%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.6421.3532.8344.0855.0965.8969.75

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.58%6.58%6.58%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.8320.0320.23
Year 2 PV (M)28.3228.9029.49
Year 3 PV (M)35.3136.4137.52
Year 4 PV (M)41.0042.7044.45
Year 5 PV (M)45.5447.9150.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,346.441,416.551,489.56
Equity Value (M)1,516.441,592.501,671.63
Shares Outstanding (M)1,514.461,514.461,514.46
Fair Value$1.00$1.05$1.10
Upside / Downside79.95%88.97%98.36%

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