Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Ota Floriculture Auction Co.,Ltd. (7555.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural Farm ProductsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$235.33 - $365.69$295.60
Multi-Stage$548.51 - $603.87$575.64
Blended Fair Value$435.62
Current Price$748.00
Upside-41.76%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202520242023202220212020
DPS0.03%0.00%11.9814.9611.9710.0110.0011.960.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---19.97%25.04%19.61%0.07%-16.39%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.61%1.92%1.59%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)126.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)66.77
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)25.3815.869.52
Cash Retained (M)66.7766.7766.77
(-) Cash Required (M)-25.38-15.86-9.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.4050.9157.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.095.095.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share8.1410.0111.25
LTM Dividend per Share11.8111.8111.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share8.1410.0111.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend19.9521.8223.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$235.33$295.60$365.69
Upside / Downside-68.54%-60.48%-51.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)126.88125.61124.36123.11121.88120.66124.28
Payout Ratio47.37%55.90%64.42%72.95%81.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.1170.2180.1189.8199.30108.60114.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.31%6.31%6.31%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)65.3866.0566.71
Year 2 PV (M)69.4670.8972.33
Year 3 PV (M)72.5174.7577.04
Year 4 PV (M)74.6577.7580.94
Year 5 PV (M)76.0279.9884.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,432.612,559.282,691.17
Equity Value (M)2,790.642,928.693,072.29
Shares Outstanding (M)5.095.095.09
Fair Value$548.51$575.64$603.87
Upside / Downside-26.67%-23.04%-19.27%

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