Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Mitsuba Corporation (7280.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,697.52 - $7,696.50$5,214.36
Multi-Stage$5,029.02 - $5,525.96$5,272.75
Blended Fair Value$5,243.56
Current Price$829.00
Upside532.52%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.93%9.26%15.3112.9523.557.940.0012.6312.6311.8414.2011.04
YoY Growth--18.26%-45.02%196.67%0.00%-100.00%0.00%6.71%-16.65%28.59%74.86%
Dividend Yield--1.85%1.15%2.91%1.98%0.00%2.73%1.87%1.33%0.69%1.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,858.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,039.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)10,819.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,371.601,482.25889.35
Cash Retained (M)10,819.0010,819.0010,819.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,371.60-1,482.25-889.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)8,447.409,336.759,929.65
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)56.7056.7056.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share148.99164.68175.14
LTM Dividend per Share18.3318.3318.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share148.99164.68175.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend167.32183.01193.46
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.93%2.93%3.93%
Fair Value$3,697.52$5,214.36$7,696.50
Upside / Downside346.02%528.99%828.41%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,858.0012,204.8812,561.9112,929.3913,307.6213,696.9014,107.81
Payout Ratio8.76%25.01%41.26%57.50%73.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,039.003,052.395,182.707,435.029,814.6912,327.2113,049.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate1.93%2.93%3.93%
Year 1 PV (M)2,837.252,865.092,892.92
Year 2 PV (M)4,477.854,566.144,655.30
Year 3 PV (M)5,971.076,148.556,329.51
Year 4 PV (M)7,326.627,618.417,918.82
Year 5 PV (M)8,553.608,981.519,426.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)255,959.62268,764.66282,077.14
Equity Value (M)285,126.00298,944.36313,300.09
Shares Outstanding (M)56.7056.7056.70
Fair Value$5,029.02$5,272.75$5,525.96
Upside / Downside506.64%536.04%566.58%

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