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Definitive Analysis

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Aisin Corporation (7259.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,439.19 - $15,632.47$8,519.61
Multi-Stage$5,770.81 - $6,329.99$6,045.14
Blended Fair Value$7,282.38
Current Price$2,560.00
Upside184.47%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS3.37%4.87%62.9464.0160.4460.4728.4753.3453.3949.4137.5837.31
YoY Growth---1.68%5.92%-0.05%112.40%-46.62%-0.11%8.06%31.48%0.72%-4.66%
Dividend Yield--3.41%3.64%4.10%4.32%1.80%5.10%4.20%2.94%1.96%2.71%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)169,328.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46,176.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)123,152.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33,865.6021,166.0012,699.60
Cash Retained (M)123,152.00123,152.00123,152.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-33,865.60-21,166.00-12,699.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)89,286.40101,986.00110,452.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)757.68757.68757.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share117.84134.60145.78
LTM Dividend per Share60.9460.9460.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share117.84134.60145.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend178.79195.55206.72
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Fair Value$5,439.19$8,519.61$15,632.47
Upside / Downside112.47%232.80%510.64%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)169,328.00176,350.35183,663.94191,280.83199,213.61207,475.37213,699.63
Payout Ratio27.27%39.82%52.36%64.91%77.45%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46,176.0070,215.8796,170.28124,156.67154,298.97186,727.83197,672.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.15%4.15%5.15%
Year 1 PV (M)65,274.2765,907.1066,539.93
Year 2 PV (M)83,110.2184,729.5186,364.43
Year 3 PV (M)99,744.82102,674.08105,660.14
Year 4 PV (M)115,236.51119,770.73124,437.47
Year 5 PV (M)129,641.15136,048.47142,706.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,879,408.504,071,142.384,270,383.34
Equity Value (M)4,372,415.474,580,272.274,796,091.96
Shares Outstanding (M)757.68757.68757.68
Fair Value$5,770.81$6,045.14$6,329.99
Upside / Downside125.42%136.14%147.27%

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