Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sichuan Tianwei Electronic Co.,Ltd. (688511.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.98 - $1.39$1.18
Multi-Stage$1.44 - $1.58$1.51
Blended Fair Value$1.34
Current Price$23.02
Upside-94.16%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS12.07%0.00%0.290.000.490.010.310.160.010.010.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%3,366.51%-95.40%89.79%1,021.45%77.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.23%0.00%1.81%0.05%0.39%0.21%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.19
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.96
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.031.891.14
Cash Retained (M)14.9614.9614.96
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.03-1.89-1.14
(=) Excess Retained (M)11.9313.0613.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)102.70102.70102.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.120.130.14
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.98$1.18$1.39
Upside / Downside-95.75%-94.87%-93.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.1515.0014.8514.7014.5514.4114.84
Payout Ratio1.28%19.03%36.77%54.51%72.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.192.855.468.0110.5212.9713.73

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.82%9.82%9.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2.572.602.63
Year 2 PV (M)4.444.534.62
Year 3 PV (M)5.876.056.24
Year 4 PV (M)6.947.237.53
Year 5 PV (M)7.728.128.54
PV of Terminal Value (M)119.87126.12132.61
Equity Value (M)147.41154.64162.16
Shares Outstanding (M)102.70102.70102.70
Fair Value$1.44$1.51$1.58
Upside / Downside-93.76%-93.46%-93.14%

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