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Ace Edulink Co., Ltd. (6764.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Education & Training ServicesSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.86 - $16.69$13.57
Multi-Stage$24.75 - $27.19$25.94
Blended Fair Value$19.76
Current Price$25.55
Upside-22.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-0.66%0.00%1.001.210.421.511.551.040.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---17.09%190.52%-72.51%-2.62%50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.82%4.71%1.02%1.87%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)44.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.08
(=) Cash Retained (M)7.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)8.825.513.31
Cash Retained (M)7.037.037.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-8.82-5.51-3.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)-1.791.513.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)37.0137.0137.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.040.10
LTM Dividend per Share1.001.001.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.050.040.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.951.041.10
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.86$13.57$16.69
Upside / Downside-57.50%-46.87%-34.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)44.1143.6743.2342.8042.3741.9543.21
Payout Ratio84.07%85.25%86.44%87.63%88.81%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.0837.2337.3737.5137.6337.7539.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.61%6.61%6.61%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)34.5734.9235.28
Year 2 PV (M)32.2232.8833.55
Year 3 PV (M)30.0330.9631.90
Year 4 PV (M)27.9829.1430.33
Year 5 PV (M)26.0627.4228.83
PV of Terminal Value (M)764.89804.72846.19
Equity Value (M)915.74960.031,006.08
Shares Outstanding (M)37.0137.0137.01
Fair Value$24.75$25.94$27.19
Upside / Downside-3.15%1.54%6.41%

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