Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Max Co., Ltd. (6454.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - DistributionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$20,823.16 - $49,169.29$46,078.82
Multi-Stage$7,280.08 - $7,966.06$7,616.77
Blended Fair Value$26,847.80
Current Price$4,655.00
Upside476.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS16.88%10.13%101.0479.3865.1149.3148.4046.3344.5344.5741.3839.25
YoY Growth--27.29%21.92%32.05%1.87%4.46%4.06%-0.10%7.70%5.43%1.96%
Dividend Yield--2.17%2.09%2.47%3.06%2.66%3.05%2.78%3.18%2.55%3.37%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,483.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,198.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,285.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,296.601,435.38861.23
Cash Retained (M)6,285.006,285.006,285.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,296.60-1,435.38-861.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,988.404,849.635,423.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)46.4546.4546.45
(=) Excess Retained per Share85.87104.42116.78
LTM Dividend per Share111.92111.92111.92
(+) Excess Retained per Share85.87104.42116.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend197.79216.33228.69
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$20,823.16$46,078.82$49,169.29
Upside / Downside347.33%889.88%956.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,483.0012,229.4013,024.3113,870.8914,772.4915,732.7116,204.69
Payout Ratio45.27%54.21%63.16%72.11%81.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,198.006,629.998,226.1710,001.8511,973.6114,159.4314,989.33

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.50%6.50%6.50%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,166.766,225.226,283.67
Year 2 PV (M)7,116.847,252.397,389.23
Year 3 PV (M)8,048.498,279.538,514.95
Year 4 PV (M)8,961.979,306.639,661.13
Year 5 PV (M)9,857.5610,333.6810,828.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)297,973.58312,365.81327,308.87
Equity Value (M)338,125.20353,763.27369,985.88
Shares Outstanding (M)46.4546.4546.45
Fair Value$7,280.08$7,616.77$7,966.06
Upside / Downside56.39%63.63%71.13%

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