Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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MODEC, Inc. (6269.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$48.13 - $84.26$63.53
Multi-Stage$45.56 - $49.80$47.64
Blended Fair Value$55.59
Current Price$42.95
Upside29.42%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-62.50%5.25%0.330.000.000.280.3744.4342.3532.0229.9427.86
YoY Growth--224,780.00%-47.37%-99.90%-24.83%-99.17%4.91%32.25%6.95%7.47%14,005.53%
Dividend Yield--1.20%0.00%0.00%2.66%1.81%365.64%144.72%127.97%140.96%190.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)241.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)58.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)183.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.4030.2518.15
Cash Retained (M)183.43183.43183.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.40-30.25-18.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)135.03153.18165.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.2768.2768.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.982.242.42
LTM Dividend per Share0.860.860.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.982.242.42
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.843.103.28
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Fair Value$48.13$63.53$84.26
Upside / Downside12.07%47.92%96.19%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)241.99253.79266.17279.15292.77307.05316.26
Payout Ratio24.20%37.36%50.52%63.68%76.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)58.5694.82134.47177.76224.96276.34292.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate3.88%4.88%5.88%
Year 1 PV (M)85.3886.2087.02
Year 2 PV (M)109.03111.14113.27
Year 3 PV (M)129.78133.57137.42
Year 4 PV (M)147.89153.67159.61
Year 5 PV (M)163.58171.61179.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,474.952,596.402,722.57
Equity Value (M)3,110.623,252.583,399.84
Shares Outstanding (M)68.2768.2768.27
Fair Value$45.56$47.64$49.80
Upside / Downside6.08%10.92%15.95%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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