Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Qingdao Vland Biotech Inc. (603739.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.44 - $64.76$20.90
Multi-Stage$6.98 - $7.63$7.30
Blended Fair Value$14.10
Current Price$13.69
Upside3.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.29%0.61%0.230.160.220.150.130.130.260.250.220.11
YoY Growth--38.88%-24.63%39.64%16.08%5.23%-50.39%2.97%12.29%94.41%-46.63%
Dividend Yield--1.78%1.45%1.48%0.89%0.81%0.79%1.10%2.37%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)83.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)47.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)35.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.7110.456.27
Cash Retained (M)35.8035.8035.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.71-10.45-6.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.0825.3529.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)244.21244.21244.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.270.300.32
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$11.44$20.90$64.76
Upside / Downside-16.46%52.70%373.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)83.5789.0094.79100.95107.51114.50117.93
Payout Ratio57.16%63.73%70.30%76.87%83.43%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)47.7756.7266.6377.5989.70103.05109.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.03%8.03%8.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)52.0152.5153.00
Year 2 PV (M)56.0357.1058.18
Year 3 PV (M)59.8461.5563.30
Year 4 PV (M)63.4365.8768.38
Year 5 PV (M)66.8270.0573.40
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,407.621,475.611,546.20
Equity Value (M)1,705.751,782.691,862.46
Shares Outstanding (M)244.21244.21244.21
Fair Value$6.98$7.30$7.63
Upside / Downside-48.98%-46.68%-44.29%

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