Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Smith Adhesive New Material Co., Ltd (603683.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$40.44 - $47.64$44.65
Multi-Stage$8.66 - $9.48$9.06
Blended Fair Value$26.85
Current Price$33.20
Upside-19.11%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.60%11.79%0.100.070.040.020.060.020.020.040.010.02
YoY Growth--34.91%102.33%51.31%-56.49%136.80%0.00%-38.91%240.38%-43.35%-39.20%
Dividend Yield--0.91%0.78%0.39%0.29%0.56%0.37%0.25%0.29%0.14%0.25%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.12
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.828.014.81
Cash Retained (M)33.9933.9933.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.82-8.01-4.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)21.1725.9829.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)267.64267.64267.64
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.100.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$40.44$44.65$47.64
Upside / Downside21.80%34.48%43.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.1268.2872.7277.4582.4887.8490.48
Payout Ratio46.99%55.59%64.19%72.79%81.40%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.1337.9646.6856.3867.1479.0683.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.88%5.88%5.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)35.5135.8536.19
Year 2 PV (M)40.8741.6442.43
Year 3 PV (M)46.1847.5048.85
Year 4 PV (M)51.4553.4355.46
Year 5 PV (M)56.6959.4262.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,086.442,187.212,291.85
Equity Value (M)2,317.132,425.062,537.05
Shares Outstanding (M)267.64267.64267.64
Fair Value$8.66$9.06$9.48
Upside / Downside-73.92%-72.71%-71.45%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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