Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $118.15 - $383.90 | $359.77 |
| Multi-Stage | $51.38 - $56.19 | $53.74 |
| Blended Fair Value | $206.76 | |
| Current Price | $24.55 | |
| Upside | 742.18% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 6.35% | 20.25% | 0.78 | 0.69 | 0.70 | 0.41 | 0.09 | 0.58 | 0.39 | 0.42 | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 14.28% | -1.30% | 68.11% | 338.03% | -83.62% | 47.28% | -7.21% | 155.74% | -2.97% | 37.02% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.31% | 3.41% | 3.36% | 2.62% | 0.74% | 3.58% | 2.20% | 2.81% | 0.69% | 0.93% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 495.38 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 260.80 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 234.58 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 99.08 | 61.92 | 37.15 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 234.58 | 234.58 | 234.58 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -99.08 | -61.92 | -37.15 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 135.51 | 172.66 | 197.43 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 256.63 | 256.63 | 256.63 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.02 | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.53 | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.54 | 1.69 | 1.79 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.88% | 6.88% | 6.88% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $118.15 | $359.77 | $383.90 |
| Upside / Downside | 381.25% | 1,365.46% | 1,463.75% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 495.38 | 527.58 | 561.88 | 598.40 | 637.29 | 678.72 | 699.08 |
| Payout Ratio | 52.65% | 60.12% | 67.59% | 75.06% | 82.53% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 260.80 | 317.17 | 379.76 | 449.15 | 525.95 | 610.85 | 646.65 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.88% | 6.88% | 6.88% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 293.97 | 296.75 | 299.54 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 326.23 | 332.45 | 338.72 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 357.62 | 367.88 | 378.35 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 388.14 | 403.07 | 418.42 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 417.81 | 438.00 | 458.95 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 11,402.56 | 11,953.31 | 12,525.13 |
| Equity Value (M) | 13,186.33 | 13,791.46 | 14,419.11 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 256.63 | 256.63 | 256.63 |
| Fair Value | $51.38 | $53.74 | $56.19 |
| Upside / Downside | 109.30% | 118.90% | 128.87% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVSP | Univest Financial Corporation | 2.69% | $0.87 | 28.95% |
| VBTX | Veritex Holdings, Inc. | 2.69% | $0.81 | 38.53% |
| CBT | Cabot Corporation | 2.68% | $1.80 | 29.00% |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | 2.68% | $0.56 | 33.19% |
| WINA | Winmark Corporation | 2.68% | $10.76 | 96.24% |
| CHCO | City Holding Company | 2.67% | $3.20 | 36.27% |
| IDA | IDACORP, Inc. | 2.67% | $3.40 | 58.98% |
| LFVN | LifeVantage Corporation | 2.67% | $0.16 | 18.67% |
| MMM | 3M Company | 2.67% | $4.31 | 68.77% |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water Company | 2.67% | $1.34 | 56.69% |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 2.67% | $0.60 | 35.48% |
| 0HQU.L | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 2.66% | $2.07 | 24.22% |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 2.66% | $0.60 | 32.28% |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. | 2.66% | $0.95 | 30.99% |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. | 2.65% | $1.63 | 26.64% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | 2.65% | $9.15 | 62.39% |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp. | 2.65% | $0.68 | 27.31% |
| PPG | PPG Industries, Inc. | 2.65% | $2.76 | 62.85% |
| TWMIX | American Century Emerging Markets Investor Class | 2.64% | $0.40 | 76.80% |
| 0M2A.L | Adeia Inc. | 2.63% | $0.35 | 53.29% |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | 2.63% | $1.20 | 59.56% |
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services Corporation | 2.63% | $1.28 | 36.88% |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 2.63% | $3.12 | 37.81% |
| VHI | Valhi, Inc. | 2.63% | $0.32 | 49.46% |
| FHI | Federated Hermes, Inc. | 2.62% | $1.37 | 27.23% |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 2.62% | $1.76 | 61.04% |
| SLB | SLB N.V. | 2.62% | $1.05 | 42.94% |
| BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | 2.61% | $2.22 | 33.15% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 2.61% | $3.18 | 49.10% |
| AWR | American States Water Company | 2.60% | $1.88 | 55.89% |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.46 | 28.75% |
| MDU | MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.51 | 62.41% |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | 2.59% | $1.14 | 27.38% |
| CRD-A | Crawford & Company | 2.58% | $0.28 | 43.18% |
| WBS | Webster Financial Corporation | 2.57% | $1.64 | 29.21% |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 2.56% | $3.90 | 26.98% |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | 2.56% | $1.63 | 49.77% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 2.56% | $8.60 | 44.61% |
| DOX | Amdocs Limited | 2.55% | $2.04 | 39.68% |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corporation | 2.55% | $0.96 | 22.55% |
| TGNA | TEGNA Inc. | 2.55% | $0.49 | 23.26% |
| CFFI | C&F Financial Corporation | 2.54% | $1.80 | 22.24% |
| MTH | Meritage Homes Corporation | 2.54% | $1.68 | 21.92% |
| DTM | DT Midstream, Inc. | 2.52% | $3.04 | 77.42% |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss & Co. | 2.52% | $0.52 | 34.78% |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Company | 2.52% | $2.07 | 36.34% |
| AMNB | American National Bankshares Inc. | 2.51% | $1.20 | 48.76% |
| HIMYX | Pioneer High Income Municipal Fund Class Y | 2.51% | $0.14 | 81.31% |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 2.50% | $1.18 | 37.66% |
| FMBH | First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 2.50% | $0.96 | 26.52% |