Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Guangxin Agrochemical Co., Ltd. (603599.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$95.37 - $158.40$148.44
Multi-Stage$25.55 - $27.98$26.74
Blended Fair Value$87.59
Current Price$11.91
Upside635.44%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS47.08%0.00%0.620.710.720.220.000.090.070.040.030.00
YoY Growth---13.90%-1.42%230.13%29,669.26%-99.17%28.63%91.55%40.36%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--5.26%5.01%3.08%1.35%0.00%1.12%0.82%0.46%0.30%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)724.99
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)471.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)145.0090.6254.37
Cash Retained (M)471.08471.08471.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-145.00-90.62-54.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)326.08380.46416.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)910.27910.27910.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.46
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.360.420.46
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.640.700.74
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$95.37$148.44$158.40
Upside / Downside700.79%1,146.34%1,229.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)724.99772.11822.30875.75932.67993.301,023.10
Payout Ratio35.02%46.02%57.01%68.01%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.91355.31468.82595.59736.86893.97946.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)331.41334.55337.69
Year 2 PV (M)407.87415.64423.49
Year 3 PV (M)483.31497.18511.32
Year 4 PV (M)557.72579.17601.23
Year 5 PV (M)631.13661.61693.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)20,847.3021,854.2422,899.71
Equity Value (M)23,258.7424,342.3925,466.69
Shares Outstanding (M)910.27910.27910.27
Fair Value$25.55$26.74$27.98
Upside / Downside114.54%124.53%134.90%

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