Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Servyou Software Group Co., Ltd. (603171.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.74 - $2.48$2.10
Multi-Stage$2.89 - $3.16$3.02
Blended Fair Value$2.56
Current Price$50.83
Upside-94.95%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS335.26%0.00%0.160.270.310.180.180.000.010.280.130.00
YoY Growth---38.80%-13.48%72.75%0.00%170,678.34%-98.55%-97.41%121.97%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%1.03%0.70%0.56%0.93%0.00%0.04%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)107.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)22.14
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)21.4213.398.03
Cash Retained (M)22.1422.1422.14
(-) Cash Required (M)-21.42-13.39-8.03
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.728.7614.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.24
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.74$2.10$2.48
Upside / Downside-96.57%-95.86%-95.13%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)107.08106.01104.95103.90102.86101.83104.89
Payout Ratio79.32%81.46%83.59%85.73%87.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.9486.3587.7389.0790.3891.6597.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.77%9.77%9.77%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)77.8778.6779.46
Year 2 PV (M)71.3472.8074.28
Year 3 PV (M)65.3267.3469.40
Year 4 PV (M)59.7662.2464.79
Year 5 PV (M)54.6557.4960.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)854.00898.47944.77
Equity Value (M)1,182.941,237.011,293.16
Shares Outstanding (M)409.04409.04409.04
Fair Value$2.89$3.02$3.16
Upside / Downside-94.31%-94.05%-93.78%

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