Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jiangyin Jianghua Microelectronics Materials Co., Ltd (603078.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.34 - $47.02$44.06
Multi-Stage$6.62 - $7.25$6.93
Blended Fair Value$25.49
Current Price$20.76
Upside22.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.98%9.74%0.150.050.050.050.030.030.050.050.050.06
YoY Growth--171.92%17.73%-2.50%65.66%-13.33%-30.00%0.00%-8.95%-20.73%11.86%
Dividend Yield--0.75%0.41%0.23%0.27%0.23%0.27%0.53%0.37%0.77%0.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)91.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)31.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.25
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)18.2311.396.84
Cash Retained (M)59.2559.2559.25
(-) Cash Required (M)-18.23-11.39-6.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)41.0247.8652.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)385.60385.60385.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$17.34$44.06$47.02
Upside / Downside-16.46%112.24%126.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)91.1697.09103.40110.12117.27124.90128.64
Payout Ratio35.00%46.00%57.00%68.00%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)31.9144.6658.9474.8892.65112.41119.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.65%6.65%6.65%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.4841.8842.27
Year 2 PV (M)50.8551.8252.79
Year 3 PV (M)60.0161.7363.48
Year 4 PV (M)68.9671.6174.34
Year 5 PV (M)77.7181.4785.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,253.582,362.432,475.44
Equity Value (M)2,552.592,670.932,793.69
Shares Outstanding (M)385.60385.60385.60
Fair Value$6.62$6.93$7.25
Upside / Downside-68.11%-66.63%-65.10%

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