Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Liaoning Port Co., Ltd. (601880.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.66 - $1.05$0.84
Multi-Stage$0.82 - $0.90$0.86
Blended Fair Value$0.85
Current Price$1.74
Upside-51.20%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-5.09%-2.80%0.030.040.040.060.030.040.030.030.040.03
YoY Growth---23.96%-15.17%-22.23%120.49%-30.37%6.19%-0.43%-4.49%16.82%-17.12%
Dividend Yield--1.89%2.60%2.73%3.26%1.44%2.11%1.34%1.37%1.17%1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,498.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)197.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,301.59
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)299.73187.33112.40
Cash Retained (M)1,301.591,301.591,301.59
(-) Cash Required (M)-299.73-187.33-112.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,001.861,114.261,189.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22,868.0222,868.0222,868.02
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.050.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.060.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate1.37%2.37%3.37%
Fair Value$0.66$0.84$1.05
Upside / Downside-61.80%-51.77%-39.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,498.661,534.221,570.631,607.901,646.051,685.111,735.66
Payout Ratio13.15%28.52%43.89%59.26%74.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)197.07437.56689.35952.841,228.451,516.601,605.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.37%9.37%9.37%
Growth Rate1.37%2.37%3.37%
Year 1 PV (M)396.17400.08403.99
Year 2 PV (M)565.11576.31587.63
Year 3 PV (M)707.23728.36749.92
Year 4 PV (M)825.55858.61892.65
Year 5 PV (M)922.79969.211,017.48
PV of Terminal Value (M)15,340.2216,111.9216,914.37
Equity Value (M)18,757.0619,644.4820,566.02
Shares Outstanding (M)22,868.0222,868.0222,868.02
Fair Value$0.82$0.86$0.90
Upside / Downside-52.86%-50.63%-48.31%

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