Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co.,Ltd. (601816.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RailroadsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.32 - $3.52$2.88
Multi-Stage$4.64 - $5.11$4.87
Blended Fair Value$3.88
Current Price$5.13
Upside-24.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-14.88%0.00%0.150.070.110.110.130.350.160.120.060.00
YoY Growth--130.65%-41.06%7.49%-16.52%-63.37%122.19%30.09%110.26%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.77%1.32%2.17%2.21%2.16%5.57%2.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)13,055.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,077.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11,978.28
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,611.061,631.91979.15
Cash Retained (M)11,978.2811,978.2811,978.28
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,611.06-1,631.91-979.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,367.2310,346.3710,999.14
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49,000.9149,000.9149,000.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.190.210.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.210.230.25
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.32$2.88$3.52
Upside / Downside-54.81%-43.83%-31.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)13,055.2812,924.7312,795.4812,667.5312,540.8512,415.4412,787.91
Payout Ratio8.25%24.60%40.95%57.30%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,077.003,179.435,239.717,258.479,236.3211,173.9011,828.81

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.01%7.01%7.01%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,941.162,971.173,001.18
Year 2 PV (M)4,483.794,575.774,668.67
Year 3 PV (M)5,745.825,923.526,104.84
Year 4 PV (M)6,763.567,043.887,332.83
Year 5 PV (M)7,569.217,963.358,373.75
PV of Terminal Value (M)199,853.58210,260.42221,096.34
Equity Value (M)227,357.13238,738.12250,577.62
Shares Outstanding (M)49,000.9149,000.9149,000.91
Fair Value$4.64$4.87$5.11
Upside / Downside-9.55%-5.03%-0.32%

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