Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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China-Singapore Suzhou Industrial Park Development Group Co., Ltd. (601512.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.70 - $7.19$5.87
Multi-Stage$10.87 - $11.98$11.42
Blended Fair Value$8.64
Current Price$9.37
Upside-7.77%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162013
DPS39.60%2.36%0.530.540.300.260.220.100.090.110.210.40
YoY Growth---2.65%78.85%16.41%19.09%119.62%10.28%-18.01%-46.41%-48.02%-5.42%
Dividend Yield--6.95%6.89%3.16%2.80%2.35%0.94%0.65%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)794.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)566.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)158.9699.3559.61
Cash Retained (M)566.13566.13566.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-158.96-99.35-59.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)407.17466.78506.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,504.571,504.571,504.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.310.34
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.420.460.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.35%-1.35%-0.35%
Fair Value$4.70$5.87$7.19
Upside / Downside-49.80%-37.40%-23.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)794.81784.05773.43762.97752.64742.45764.72
Payout Ratio28.77%41.02%53.26%65.51%77.75%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.67321.59411.95499.81585.21668.21707.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.35%-1.35%-0.35%
Year 1 PV (M)299.13302.19305.25
Year 2 PV (M)356.41363.75371.16
Year 3 PV (M)402.21414.70427.44
Year 4 PV (M)438.04456.26475.05
Year 5 PV (M)465.23489.54514.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,399.6215,152.2115,935.95
Equity Value (M)16,360.6317,178.6418,029.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,504.571,504.571,504.57
Fair Value$10.87$11.42$11.98
Upside / Downside16.05%21.85%27.89%

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