DDM Analysis: 601163.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$8.61 - $12.57	$10.52
Multi-Stage	$12.34 - $13.57	$12.94
Blended Fair Value	$11.73
Current Price	$13.85
Upside	-15.29%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	23.33%	-5.98%	0.72	0.33	0.27	0.44	0.39	0.25	0.33	0.46	0.11	1.29
YoY Growth	-	-	115.76%	25.00%	-38.88%	12.08%	54.46%	-22.96%	-29.33%	313.72%	-91.32%	-3.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.76%	2.03%	2.02%	3.52%	2.35%	2.00%	2.39%	2.72%	0.37%	4.07%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	901.52
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	876.87

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	180.30	112.69	67.61
Cash Retained (M)	876.87	876.87	876.87
(-) Cash Required (M)	-180.30	-112.69	-67.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)	696.57	764.18	809.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	797.65	797.65	797.65
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.87	0.96	1.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.03	0.03	0.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.87	0.96	1.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.90	0.99	1.05
WACC / Discount Rate	9.43%	9.43%	9.43%
Growth Rate	-0.97%	0.03%	1.03%
Fair Value	$8.61	$10.52	$12.57
Upside / Downside	-37.84%	-24.03%	-9.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	901.52	901.81	902.10	902.38	902.67	902.96	930.05
Payout Ratio	2.73%	20.19%	37.64%	55.09%	72.55%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.64	182.05	339.55	497.15	654.86	812.66	860.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.43%	9.43%	9.43%
Growth Rate	-0.97%	0.03%	1.03%
Year 1 PV (M)	164.69	166.35	168.02
Year 2 PV (M)	277.89	283.53	289.23
Year 3 PV (M)	368.09	379.35	390.84
Year 4 PV (M)	438.62	456.61	475.14
Year 5 PV (M)	492.43	517.80	544.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,102.60	8,520.04	8,954.51
Equity Value (M)	9,844.32	10,323.68	10,821.94
Shares Outstanding (M)	797.65	797.65	797.65
Fair Value	$12.34	$12.94	$13.57
Upside / Downside	-10.89%	-6.55%	-2.04%

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Triangle Tyre Co., Ltd (601163.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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