Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co., Ltd. (600989.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$145.09 - $292.94$274.53
Multi-Stage$45.16 - $49.43$47.26
Blended Fair Value$160.89
Current Price$17.80
Upside803.89%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.32%18.28%0.440.210.420.320.320.340.260.350.070.00
YoY Growth--107.58%-49.72%31.80%-0.14%-5.66%28.73%-24.74%381.13%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--3.02%1.26%2.85%2.15%2.04%4.03%1.64%2.19%0.45%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,750.77
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,269.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,480.92
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,150.151,343.85806.31
Cash Retained (M)6,480.926,480.926,480.92
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,150.15-1,343.85-806.31
(=) Excess Retained (M)4,330.765,137.075,674.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.687,298.687,298.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.78
LTM Dividend per Share0.590.590.59
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.700.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.181.291.36
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$145.09$274.53$292.94
Upside / Downside715.10%1,442.28%1,545.72%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,750.7711,449.5712,193.8012,986.3913,830.5114,729.4915,171.38
Payout Ratio39.72%49.77%59.83%69.89%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,269.855,698.847,295.559,075.7611,056.5713,256.5414,033.52

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,307.915,358.225,408.54
Year 2 PV (M)6,328.976,449.526,571.20
Year 3 PV (M)7,333.237,543.747,758.24
Year 4 PV (M)8,320.898,640.898,970.03
Year 5 PV (M)9,292.179,740.9810,206.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)293,036.17307,189.92321,885.38
Equity Value (M)329,619.34344,923.28360,800.36
Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.687,298.687,298.68
Fair Value$45.16$47.26$49.43
Upside / Downside153.72%165.50%177.72%

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