Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Rural Commercial Bank Co.,Ltd (600908.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$58.02 - $209.86$183.83
Multi-Stage$26.05 - $28.53$27.27
Blended Fair Value$105.55
Current Price$5.88
Upside1,695.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.01%13.78%0.360.340.350.400.340.240.210.170.040.14
YoY Growth--5.95%-3.27%-12.84%18.91%38.37%13.25%27.01%291.44%-69.71%45.01%
Dividend Yield--6.25%6.55%6.48%6.87%5.25%4.88%3.20%2.35%0.31%2.21%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,318.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)191.09
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,127.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)463.77289.86173.91
Cash Retained (M)2,127.762,127.762,127.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-463.77-289.86-173.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,663.991,837.901,953.84
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,197.492,197.492,197.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.760.840.89
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.760.840.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.840.920.98
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$58.02$183.83$209.86
Upside / Downside886.78%3,026.28%3,469.00%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,318.842,469.572,630.092,801.052,983.113,177.023,272.33
Payout Ratio8.24%24.59%40.94%57.30%73.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)191.09607.331,076.871,604.892,197.012,859.313,026.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.03%7.03%7.03%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)562.08567.41572.74
Year 2 PV (M)922.40939.97957.70
Year 3 PV (M)1,272.271,308.791,346.00
Year 4 PV (M)1,611.911,673.901,737.66
Year 5 PV (M)1,941.552,035.332,132.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)50,938.8453,399.2155,953.73
Equity Value (M)57,249.0559,924.6062,700.54
Shares Outstanding (M)2,197.492,197.492,197.49
Fair Value$26.05$27.27$28.53
Upside / Downside343.06%363.77%385.25%

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