Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Inner Mongolia MengDian HuaNeng Thermal Power Corporation Limited (600863.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Independent Power ProducersSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.07 - $7.03$5.34
Multi-Stage$4.23 - $4.63$4.43
Blended Fair Value$4.89
Current Price$4.09
Upside19.45%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.25%3.16%0.240.160.100.110.110.080.030.020.070.16
YoY Growth--48.16%64.00%-10.82%0.00%31.25%220.04%30.44%-72.56%-53.44%-10.00%
Dividend Yield--6.03%3.47%2.96%3.58%4.05%3.26%0.89%0.75%2.20%4.55%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,063.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)304.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,759.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)412.71257.94154.77
Cash Retained (M)1,759.301,759.301,759.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-412.71-257.94-154.77
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,346.591,501.361,604.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)6,638.576,638.576,638.57
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.200.230.24
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Fair Value$4.07$5.34$7.03
Upside / Downside-0.52%30.60%71.82%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,063.552,146.932,233.672,323.922,417.812,515.502,590.96
Payout Ratio14.74%29.80%44.85%59.90%74.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)304.25639.681,001.721,391.971,812.122,263.952,396.64

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.34%9.34%9.34%
Growth Rate3.04%4.04%5.04%
Year 1 PV (M)579.43585.05590.68
Year 2 PV (M)821.90837.93854.11
Year 3 PV (M)1,034.511,064.921,095.93
Year 4 PV (M)1,219.901,267.951,317.41
Year 5 PV (M)1,380.511,448.811,519.79
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,058.2124,199.0325,384.57
Equity Value (M)28,094.4629,403.7030,762.48
Shares Outstanding (M)6,638.576,638.576,638.57
Fair Value$4.23$4.43$4.63
Upside / Downside3.47%8.29%13.30%

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